Earlier this year, we introduced the EMSI Job Forecast, a prediction of the previous month’s change in employment three days before the BLS releases its initial number. The goal of our forecast, which is based on a number of leading labor market indicators and data releases, is to give an early look at the current state of the labor market.
EMSI’s forecast is released the Tuesday before every monthly jobs report.
The November Job Forecast: +233,000
November was another strong month for job growth, according to EMSI’s job forecast. Our model shows that employers added 233,000 net jobs in November, an estimate that includes total non-farm payroll employment (government included). When factoring in the BLS’s revised numbers, this would be the ninth straight month, going back to February, with at least 200,000 jobs added.
What’s Behind the Number?
Here are a few factors driving EMSI’s predicted jobs number:
The second estimate for third-quarter GDP was 3.9%, a bit higher than the first estimate.
Personal income increased in October by 0.2%, the same as September’s, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The four-week seasonally adjusted average initial unemployment claims increased around 3,000, and also rose from the previous week.
How Have We Performed?
We launched the forecast in August, but we’ve been tracking our model’s performance since we developed it in the summer of 2013. How have we fared?
BLS-EMSI Comparison (In Thousands)
BLS InitialBLS RevisedEMSIJuly_1316289155August_13169238156September_13148175203October_13204200163November_13203274228December_137484199January_14113144160February_14175222165March_14192203193April_14288304263May_14217229229June_14288267237July_14209243241Aug_14142203236September_14248256185October_14214247
We overshot our October estimate by 33,000 jobs, according to BLS’s initial release. Since July of last year, EMSI’s average error is +/- 39,600 compared to the first BLS release and +/- 40,200 compared to the BLS revised number.
The EMSI Job Forecast is calculated using a time series of leading indicators from federal data sources. Our model includes data on initial job claims from the Department of Labor, various economic indices, and employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The job forecast covers total non-farm payroll employment in the U.S., including private-sector and government jobs. EMSI’s goal is to predict the BLS’s change in employment in the most accurate way, with an eye toward the preliminary monthly figure and the final number.
Note: Our monthly job forecast methodology is not related in any way to our approach to producing quarterly employment projections by industry and occupation.
Emsi turns labor market data into useful information that helps organizations understand the connection between economies, people, and work. Using sound economic principles and good data, we build user-friendly services that help educational institutions, workforce planners, and regional developers (such as workforce boards, economic development offices, chambers of commerce, and utilities) build a better workforce and improve the economic conditions in their regions.