Drivers Wanted

Using Data to Understand the Commercial Truck Driver Shortage

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Is the US logistics industry facing a dire shortage of commercial truck drivers?

Truckload brokerage experts and logistics journalists have been going back and forth on the question for years.

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About this report

Drivers are indispensable to our lifestyle.: They keep food, clothes, medicine, books, gadgets, and almost anything else you can name, on our shelves. Between 2019 and 2020 alone, there were over 14 million job postings for truck drivers. In other words, they are in extremely high demand, and failure to meet this demand over the long term will have widespread consequences.
This may be a uniquely important moment for investigating and defining the potential trucking shortage.: The effects of the pandemic and accompanying response have been massive. Online shopping and the consequent demand for delivery has skyrocketed, while service industry jobs have vanished. Intuition suggests that trucking jobs would grow enormously under these conditions—but to understand what has actually happened, we need to bring data to bear.
In this report, we combine labor market data and on-the-ground insights of logistics industry leaders.: We hope to paint a nuanced picture of the extent and shape of the commercial trucking shortage, the complications introduced by the unique circumstances of the past year, and the possible steps toward solutions that benefit truckers and businesses alike.

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01/07

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Top shipping & logistics challenges by business size

According to a Coyote Logistics research study, 30% of large carriers state that “driver satisfaction and retention” is one of their top three challenges, while another 28% state “recruiting new drivers” is as well.

Trucking occupations by year

In 2008, there was a noticeable dip in the number of jobs in the two occupations that make up trucking: heavy & tractor trailer truck drivers, and light truck drivers. And while the trend started to reverse itself around 2011, only in 2017 did trucking regain its 2005 peak.

Trucking unique job postings vs. avg. hires

Moreover, over the past several years, there have been about six job postings for every hire.

Postings vs. hires for blue collar occupations

To gauge how normal or abnormal this is, we need a point of comparison. Blue-collar workers in aggregate should provide one: the broad labor pool involved, workers with a high school diploma or less, is the same, and observing them as a group should offset any particular industry’s idiosyncrasies. When we look at blue-collar occupations as a group over the same period, we see approximately one posting for every hire.

Postings vs. hires, light trucking

For light trucking, the difference between hires and postings is only 1 to 2. Companies hiring light truck drivers are seeing significantly more success with their efforts to hire than trucking in aggregate.

Postings vs. hires, heavy and tractor trailer truck drivers

But for heavy and tractor trailer truck driving, it’s actually 1 to 9. Companies hiring long haul truckers are seeing low success rates when they post jobs, and it’s their struggle to hire that largely accounts for trucking’s posting dynamics.

Warehouse postings vs. hires

When young people enter transportation and warehousing, they tend to do so on the warehouse side. For most of the last four years, there have been about two hires for every warehousing job posting. This indicates that employers are able to fill these jobs via methods such as word-of-mouth referrals and local job boards, and don’t rely as much on job postings. The warehousing comparison does not only identify a more successful competitor for young talent. It also suggests trucking’s challenges are not a function of the logistics sector as a whole, but specific to trucking.