Our New Insight-Oriented Methodology

This annual report ranks all 50 states and over 900 metropolitan and micropolitan areas. Unlike previous editions, this year’s shift from county-level rankings to metro-level rankings reflects a deliberate effort to capture talent dynamics across full labor markets where people live and work. We have also updated our methodology to better investigate the reasons and dynamics behind talent attraction in 2025.

Refined focus on talent migration 

This report debuts new data and methodologies to more precisely capture the dynamics of talent attraction. One of the most informative metrics — talent migration — has been reworked. In prior years, the Scorecard used IRS filings to track address changes across regions. But IRS data reports the movement of all people, not just labor for participants, and in recent years the IRS series has been subject to large publication delays. For 2025, the Scorecard pulls migration data from the Census Bureau’s Geographic Mobility series. The Census data can be more deeply targeted around key populations, specifically prime-age talent (ages 25-54) and earners ($25,000+). This refined approach provides a clearer picture of not just where people are moving, but whether regions are attracting the talent that drives long-term competitiveness. One downside, however, is that Census’s Geographic Mobility series reports only in-migration, not out-migration. Prior instances of the TAS that used IRS data could calculate net migration (the difference between in- and out-migration), but this instance of the TAS does not. When Lightcast compared the two series, generally high gross in-migration is correlated with high net in-migration. But there are some instances where this is not the case, specifically communities that host military bases or colleges, both of which drive worker turnover and geographic mobility. 

Deeper insights by job category 

Another methodology change similarly aims to provide greater precision and granularity. In previous years, the Scorecard tracked the job growth in “skilled jobs” — occupations that typically require a postsecondary certificate or degree, long-term training, or five or more years of work experience. In order to provide more actionable insights, the Scorecard replaces that classification with two alternative measures: growth in blue-collar jobs and growth in high-earning jobs. 

Blue-collar jobs include specialized roles in the trades, manufacturing and production, and protective services. These occupations are important both for the everyday functioning of growing communities and for developing “traded” sectors that produce goods that can be sold outside of the region. Lightcast’s Rising Storm research highlights that blue-collar occupations face heightened risk from two intersecting trends: an aging workforce nearing retirement and declining interest among students, many of whom are gravitating toward careers that require a college degree. Many regions building a blue-collar workforce are small metros benefitting from industrial resurgence, such as EV expansion in Jefferson, GA, and Bloomington, IL. 

High-earning jobs include the top 200 highest-paying occupations nationally, a proxy for the types of roles that contribute significantly to a region’s tax base and capacity for reinvestment. The regions that perform highly in this metric are frequently in states without an income tax — Wyoming, Texas, Florida, and Nevada are in the top 5 states for this metric. This trend demonstrates how state policy and inter-state competition are forces in talent attraction. 

Continuity with previous scorecard data

Other metrics remain the same. These metrics include Overall Job Growth, Growth in the College-Educated Population, and Regional Competitiveness. In this Talent Attraction Scorecard, as in previous versions, these metrics continue to provide rich insight. The educational attainment metric shows the growth in adults over 25 with an associate’s degree or higher. Metros that absorb growth from larger neighboring metros perform well in this metric, like Clarksville, TN-KY (attracting workers from Nashville) and Greeley, CO (attracting workers from Denver). Other metros that perform well in this metric are retirement hubs where demand for healthcare services is growing, such as Ocala, FL, Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL, and St. George, UT. These regions are expanding their college-educated workforce to meet the needs of aging, and often affluent, populations. And these older populations are also often college educated, as well. Competitive Effect measures realized growth above or below what would be expected given national trends and industry trends — essentially, growth above or below expectations. A handful of large metros have dramatically led the nation in this category: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX; Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL; Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX; Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ; Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL; Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV; Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA. Job growth is the percent change for all wage-and-salary employees, and top performers in this category include Jefferson, GA; Sheridan, WY; and Wildwood-The Villages, FL — this mix of regions reflects how the top trends explored in the report are driving talent attraction. 

Sources and methods 

Overall Job Growth: Overall job growth is the 2019-2024 percent job change for all wage-and-salary employees. Lightcast jobs data is derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Lightcast performs sophisticated “unsupression” techniques to calculate occupation-level job estimates each year at the metropolitan and micropolitan level.

Growth in the College-Educated Population: Lightcast uses Census data to estimate the size and share of the population with an associate’s degree or more. In order to calculate this metric, Lightcast creates a composite growth score that combines both the percent growth in the number of people with this level of education and the percentage point growth in the share of the population with this level of education.

Growth in Blue Collar Jobs: Blue collar jobs include the skilled trades, jobs in installation, manufacturing, and production, and protective service occupations. This component measures the 2019-2024 growth in these jobs. Job change estimates are derived from the same process described above, beginning with data from the BLS and BEA.

Growth in High Earning Jobs
High earnings jobs are those in the top 200 occupations by average earnings, nationally. This component measures the 2019-2024 growth in these jobs.

Regional Competitiveness
Regional competitiveness uses a metric called competitive effect – competitive effect explains how much of job change is due to a region’s unique competitive advantages, rather than overall national trends or industry-specific trends. It can be understood as growth above or below expectation.

Attraction of Earners
Earners are those with incomes at or above $25,000 annually. This score is calculated based on the number of earners per capita who moved to the region within the previous year, on average, between 2018-2023.

Attraction of Prime Age Talent
Prime age people are those between 25-54 years old. This score is calculated based on the number of prime age people per capita who moved to the region within the previous year, on average, between 2018-2023.