The Lightcast Workforce Risk Outlook

Assessing the labor market risks to 15 industries across the Fortune 1000

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A seismic shift in the global workforce is happening. Is your organization prepared?

Using the Fortune 1000 as a representation of multinational companies across 15 critical industries, Lightcast assessed how labor market pressures will continue to impact organizations across operational models, critical roles, geographic markets, and changing skills. These labor market pressures are an inevitable reality. However, equipped with the foresight of what’s to come, organizations are better prepared to take action to not only mitigate risk, but create business strategies that embrace these changes and pave the way toward a more innovative, successful future.

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3M	Manufacturing	134	648	2.9	2.00	3.10	4.00	1.84
A.O. Smith	Manufacturing	768	724	3.0	2.00	3.34	4.00	2.09
Abbott Laboratories	Manufacturing	108	404	2.5	2.00	2.09	4.00	1.23
AbbVie	Manufacturing	77	299	2.2	1.00	1.76	4.00	1.31
Abercrombie & Fitch	Retail	709	376	2.4	2.50	1.74	3.00	2.62
ABM Industries	Construction	461	957	3.7	3.50	2.54	5.00	3.72
Academy Sports + Outdoors	Retail	559	892	3.4	4.50	3.32	3.00	2.20
Acadia Healthcare	Healthcare	904	860	3.3	2.00	3.43	5.00	3.46
Acuity Brands	Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services	756	224	1.9	2.00	2.87	1.00	1.33
Adams Resources & Energy	Energy & Resources	947	585	3.1	2.50	3.30	4.00	2.00

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Key Findings

The Fortune 1000 assessed in The Lightcast Workforce Risk Outlook represents $20.41 trillion in revenue and 35.86 million employees—yet no company ranked at zero exposure to labor market risk, and certainly no industry is risk-exempt from talent shortages and skills disruption. Conversely, no company or industry ranked as a 5.0—the most severe and likely unsurvivable exposure to labor market pressures—indicating that there are steps organizations can take to resist headwinds. But they must act now. For example:

4.39 million workers are needed across 15 critical industries by 2030.
67% of the Fortune 1000 are at high or critical risk of securing key occupations.
The 3 most at-risk industries are Healthcare, Construction, and Hospitality.

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Industry Scores

Methodology

Lightcast assessed thousands of data points across industry sectors, critical occupations for each company, demographic patterns, and disruptive skills found in job postings. Scores are not an indication of anything the companies are doing “right” or “wrong” from an existing organizational planning standpoint, but instead the scores represent a risk analysis of how external labor market pressures unique to each industry will impact organizations’ ability to obtain and sustain their people and manage those costs.

Lightcast examined the top 10 occupations for each company and how many prime-age workers (25-54) are entering these occupations versus exiting to project demographic shifts for the next decade. Scores for each occupational future are then averaged. Higher rates of exits presents higher risks as the workers with the necessary skills for critical operational and strategic roles are approaching retirement.

Lightcast assessed the top five markets in which each company operates to track how many prime-age workers are entering these areas versus exiting to project demographic shifts for the next decade. Scores for each market are then averaged. Higher exiting rates of workers present higher risks as the accessible working population in these markets is declining.

Based upon a company's industry, and thereby its operational requirements and constraints, companies can only bridge talent shortages by four options: local workforce development, immigration, globalization, or Al/automation. Industries that are in severe workforce shortages that can only pursue local workforce development and immigration are at the highest risk, whereas industries that are able to pull all four levers face lower risks.

Within the top 10 occupations for each company, Lightcast examined the job postings and associated skills to uncover how exposed to Al those roles are.

Companies that have a lower presence of Al skills are not positioned for these technologies to fill workforce shortages and receive a higher risk score, whereas companies with more exposure to Al are better positioned for bridging shortages with Al and receive a lower risk score

Organizations in industries with the same operational models and competing for the same talent must understand their relative positions within the Fortune 1000 as an indicator of how addressing these challenges can shift market position. Organizations with higher revenues have greater flexibility for workforce investments; additionally, those with higher employee counts have a greater share of workers from the labor market that they can leverage to fill talent gaps.

However, without prioritizing workforce development as an operational strategy, these companies also have more to lose-which means companies with smaller relative revenues and employee numbers can capture a larger market share.